Central Asia’s Vast Biofuel Opportunity

The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted key oil projections under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely step forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic explosion on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the prospective to toss governments’ long-lasting preparation into chaos.

Whatever the truth, rising long term global needs appear specific to overtake production in the next decade, especially provided the high and rising costs of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s offshore Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, additives and alternatives such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising costs drive this technology to the leading edge, one of the richest possible production areas has actually been absolutely overlooked by financiers already – Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the area is poised to end up being a major player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have actually mainly prevented their ability to capitalize increasing worldwide energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their heightened need to create winter season electrical power has actually resulted in autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has ended up being a major manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser level Astana for those sturdy investors going to wager on the future, specifically as a plant indigenous to the area has actually currently shown itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business currently examining how to produce it in business amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to try out flying on fuel derived from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month examination of camelina’s functional performance capability and possible business viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s major wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A load (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant’s particles can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly fine animals feed prospect that is recently gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina might be an ideal low-input crop appropriate for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.”

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: historical evidence suggests it has been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 centuries to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a broad range of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been determined to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds’ little size of 400,000 seeds per pound can create issues in germination to attain an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina’s potential could permit Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation’s attempts at agrarian reform considering that achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing fabric industry. The process was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise ordered by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce “white gold.”

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; five decades later on it had actually ended up being a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world’s production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union’s output.

Try as it might to diversify, in the lack of alternatives Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons each year, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up roughly 60 percent of the nation’s difficult currency income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government’s directives for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area’s 2 primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective watering canals, leading to the dramatic shrinkage of the rivers’ final destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world’s fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its initial size in among the 20th century’s worst ecological disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently explained camelina’s business design to Capital Press as: “At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would gather $230.”

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe – all that’s missing out on is the foreign financial investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the knowledge of America’s land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel‘s market share will grow in time; less particular is who will gain the advantages of establishing it as a practical issue in Central Asia.

If the recent past is anything to go by it is not likely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments show Asian interest, American financiers have the scholastic proficiency, if they want to follow the Silk Road into developing a new market. Certainly anything that decreases water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the lot of their agrarian population will receive most mindful consideration from Central Asia’s federal governments, and farming and veggie oil processing plants are not just much more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed quicker.

And jatropha‘s biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.